Outlook

Subsequent events

Between the end of fiscal year 2022 and the preparation of this report on February 22, 2023, there were no material macroeconomic, socio-political, industry-related, or Company-specific changes that the Management expects to have a significant impact on the Group’s earnings, net assets, or financial position.

Outlook

The following report presents the view of the Management of HUGO BOSS with respect to the Company’s expected business performance in fiscal year 2023. It also describes the expected development of significant macroeconomic and industry-specific conditions. In doing so, it reflects Management’s current knowledge at the time the report was prepared, while also taking into account that actual developments may differ significantly from this outlook, either positively or negatively, in case that risks and opportunities materialize as described in the Risks and Opportunities section of this Annual Report. Other than the statutory publication requirements, HUGO BOSS does not assume any obligation to update the statements contained in this report. Report on Risks and Opportunities

Macroeconomic and industry-specific developments have a major influence on the development of the Company’s operational and financial development. Statements made in this section regarding the Company’s expected business performance are therefore based on certain assumptions with regards to developments in the global economy and in the apparel industry. Over the course of the year, the Group will closely monitor the development of external conditions, in order to respond to any possible changes as quickly and comprehensively as possible.

Outlook for the global economy

In its publication of January 30, 2023, the IMF anticipates a further slowdown of the global economy in 2023, with ongoing high levels of inflation, tightening financial conditions in most regions, and lasting geopolitical tensions all weighing heavily on the outlook. In particular, the reversal of monetary and fiscal policies aimed at lowering inflation is expected to cool demand in many economies, after having delivered strong stimulus during the pandemic. Consequently, a growing share of economies have been facing a slowdown in growth with the probability of entering a recession mounting up. The global economy’s future health therefore rests critically on the successful calibration of monetary policy, the further course of the war in Ukraine, and the further evolution of easing supply chain disruptions. Overall, global growth is forecast to slow from 6.2% in 2021 to 3.4% in 2022 and 2.9% in 2023, with significant declines in economic activity expected for the world’s largest economies. With the exception of the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, this would represent the weakest growth profile since 2001. Risk Report, External Risks

By region, the IMF expects economic growth in the eurozone to slow down to 0.7% in 2023 (2022: 3.5%), mainly reflecting economic repercussions of the war in Ukraine, including ongoing high energy prices and weaker consumer confidence. For the U.S. economy, the IMF expects growth of 1.4% (2022: 2.0%), with high levels of inflation and the associated sharp rise in interest rates likely to continue putting pressure on both consumers and companies. According to the IMF, the economy of China is forecast to grow by 5.2% in 2023, thus above the prior-year level (2022: 3.0%), with support coming from the end of China’s zero-COVID policy announced in late 2022.

Risks and uncertainties associated with these assumptions remain fundamentally high. According to the IMF, monetary policy could miscalculate the right stance to fight inflation. In the event of a further escalation of the war in Ukraine, additional energy and food price shocks could lead to prolonged inflation, while a further global tightening in financing conditions could trigger widespread emerging market debt distress. And while negative health implications due to the abrupt end of China’s zero-COVID policy could hamper the country’s recovery in the short-term, the IMF also flags a potential worsening of China’s property sector crisis. The latter could spill over to the domestic banking sector and weigh heavily on China’s economic growth, with negative cross-border effects. Finally, a further geopolitical fragmentation could impede trade and capital flows, while also hindering future climate policy cooperation.

Industry outlook

For the global apparel industry, fiscal year 2023 is expected to be dominated by the persistently high level of macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties and the associated deterioration in consumer sentiment that became visible already in the second half of 2022. Major challenges for 2023 include, in particular, ongoing high levels of inflation and the related pressure on company’s input costs and consumer demand, a highly competitive labor market, as well as overall economic volatility.

In a joint study published in November 2022, The Business of Fashion and consulting firm McKinsey & Company estimate that revenue growth of the global apparel industry (excluding the luxury segment) should be in the range of between ‐2% to +3% in 2023 (H1 2022: +11%; H2 2022: -7% to -5%), with growth likely to vary noticeably across geographies.

In Europe, industry sales growth (excluding the luxury segment) is expected to total between -4% and +1% in 2023 (H1 2022: +31% to +33%; H2 2022: -9% to -7%). Consumer sentiment is expected to remain rather muted in light of ongoing high inflation and the fact that many consumers will be exposed to the impact of rising costs and high energy bills in particular. Industry growth in the U.S. will also likely slow, but is expected to show greater resilience than Europe, as strength of the U.S. dollar has probably peaked and inflation is projected to cool during the course of 2023. Consequently, non-luxury fashion companies in the U.S. are expected to grow modestly in 2023, with expected growth of between +1% and +6% (H1 2022: +7% to +9%; H2 2022: +1% to +3%). In China, the global apparel industry is expected to see a robust recovery in 2023 following a rather difficult fiscal year 2022, when persistent outbreaks of COVID-19 and the lasting zero-COVID policy weighed on industry revenues. China’s substantial middle class will also be impacted by policy responses to the ongoing real estate crisis as well as international travel guidelines. Overall, The Business of Fashion and McKinsey & Company expects industry sales growth in China (excluding the luxury segment) to further recover to a level of +2% to +7% in 2023 (H1 2022: -7% to -5%; H2 2022: +1% to +3%).

Outlook for HUGO BOSS

For HUGO BOSS, fiscal year 2023 represents a further important milestone in achieving its 2025 financial ambition as laid out in the Company’s “CLAIM 5” growth strategy. The main focus in 2023 will therefore be on the determined and relentless execution of “CLAIM 5” aimed at maintaining the strong top-line momentum gained in 2022. This includes, above all, building on the strong brand power gained in the wake of the comprehensive branding refresh successfully implemented in 2022. Also this year, we are committed to winning over consumers from all over the globe through impressive marketing campaigns, exciting brand events, and inspiring collections as well as collaborations. HUGO BOSS will therefore continue to invest into brand-building activities as well as its product offering to further drive brand relevance and strengthen the 24/7 lifestyle image of BOSS and HUGO. In addition, the Company will push ahead with the digitalization of its business model and make further progress in expanding its omnichannel activities, including the modernization of its global store network. All initiatives will provide a strong foundation in fostering the strong top-line momentum gained in 2022, thereby taking a further important step towards the Group’s sales target of EUR 4 billion by 2025. At the same time, HUGO BOSS will continue to put strong emphasis on realizing efficiency gains also in 2023, particularly via the ongoing optimization of its global store network. This should enable the Company to make further progress also this year towards its 2025 EBIT margin target of around 12%. Group Strategy, 2025 Financial Ambition

Taking into account the anticipated macroeconomic and industry-specific conditions as outlined in this chapter, HUGO BOSS expects Group sales in 2023 to increase at a mid-single-digit percentage rate (2022: EUR 3,651 million). For both, EMEA and the Americas region, the Company expects growth in the low- to mid-single-digit percentage range. In the Asia/Pacific region, on the other hand, HUGO BOSS expects to achieve sales growth in the teens range in fiscal year 2023.

At the same time, HUGO BOSS forecasts to increase its operating profit (EBIT) in 2023 within a range of +5% to +12% to an amount of between EUR 350 million and EUR 375 million (2022: EUR 335 million), with the final sales performance being decisive for the level of expected EBIT. In this context, the Company’s investments planned for 2023 as part of “CLAIM 5” to further strengthen products, brands and digital expertise are expected to be more than offset by efficiency gains. Broadly in line with EBIT growth, also the Group’s net income is expected to improve within a range of +5% to +12% in 2023 (2022: EUR 222 million).

Following a very positive development of trade net working capital as a percentage of sales in 2022, HUGO BOSS now expects a gradual normalization for fiscal year 2023, anticipating a modest increase to a level of around 17% (2022: 15.0%), fully in line with the Company’s mid-term target range of between 16% and 19% as laid out in “CLAIM 5”. Capital expenditure is expected to total between EUR 200 million and EUR 250 million in 2023 (2022: EUR 191 million), and thus at the lower end of the target range of between 6% and 7% of Group sales laid out in “CLAIM 5”. Investment activity will continue to be focused on the modernization and further optimization of the global store network as well as the ongoing digitalization of the business model along the entire value chain.

In view of the strong operational and financial performance in 2022, the very solid financial position and management’s confidence in the further successful execution of “CLAIM 5”, the Managing Board and the Supervisory Board intend to propose to the Annual Shareholders’ Meeting on May 9, 2023, a dividend of EUR 1.00 per share for fiscal year 2022, corresponding to an increase of 43% year over year (2021: EUR 0.70). The proposal is equivalent to a payout ratio of 33% of the Group’s net income attributable to shareholders in fiscal year 2022. Assuming that the shareholders approve the proposal, the dividend will be paid out on May 12, 2023. Based on the number of shares outstanding at the end of 2022, the amount distributed will total EUR 69 million (2021: EUR 48 million).